Starship Enterprise or World War III
I have recently posted a link to an article about evil Russians who extend their power grab and want to nationalize key industries. This is however dwarfed by the over USD9 trillion that the
Anyway, my point that I want to make now is that it is not so much about the economy any more as it is about ideology and that is where the danger lies. It is like in cold war times. Russian propaganda pictures the
This is the beginning of the creation of consensual paranoia. I want to quote from a book by philosopher Sam Keen who describes paranoia in his book “Faces of the Enemy” (1986, Harper Collins Publishing Inc.) as follows:
“Paranoia involves a complex of mental, emotional, and social mechanisms by which a person or a people claim righteousness and purity and attribute hostility and evil to the enemy. […] Paranoia reduces anxiety and guilt by transferring to the other all the characteristics one does not want to recognize in oneself.”
Practically, the economy will become a secondary issue as the demise will start from a politically induced polarization of ideologies between the ones that have and the ones that have not, between socialism and capitalism, between Keynes and laissez faire. This will be the breeding ground for different forms of nationalism and fascism all intended to create consensual paranoia and to optimize the enemy building.
Let me take a step back now and give a historic review of recent economic events and the run up to the current economic crisis. I trust that my readers agree with Milton Friedman’s definition that inflation is always and exclusively a monetary quantity problem. Meaning that if I have more money for the same goods prices will rise to adjust for the increase in money supply. Ergo the cause of inflation is an increase in the money supply and its effect is the increase in prices. The effect we have seen over recent years in the form of asset bubbles which appeared in equities, housing prices, commodities, shipping rates, etc. The cause was a rampant increase in the money supply through unlimited lending which was brought about through manipulation of interest rates. Who is in charge of interest rates? Let’s not fool ourselves and admit that it is ultimately government. In order to finance a war and keep the economy running interest rates were kept too low for way too long. Other problems like the failed vision of the
What now? Will the politicians say “Sorry we screwed up. We had the best intentions. And by the way the current power grab and extension of influence on the whole economy was unintended but is for the better of society”. If we take a look at history a more probable scenario becomes evident from the last great depression. In post World War 1
From the current crisis I see 2 possible extreme scenarios that can plan out. Both of them are based on the premises that deflation will lead to a depression and attempts to re-inflate the economy will create inflation.
Scenario 1, World War III:
The depression will be global so every country will be hit. This provides the ideal breeding ground for mutual enemy making and paranoia. Americans will blame evil communist Chinese for depreciating their currency, Chinese will blame American capitalist greed as the root of the crisis and evil. Within the EU countries nationalistic demagogues will blame the EU, the EU will blame individual governments. Jews and Christians blame the Arabs for inflation from rising oil prices (the inflation fallacy outlined above) and Muslims blame the rest of the world for robbing them and being infidels. Socialist South America will project the reasons for their failures onto capitalist
Scenario 2, Starship
“Space... the Final Frontier. These are the voyages of the starship
I really hope for the Star Trek Scenario and I am convinced it will come even if it needs to be preceded by the world war 3 scenario. The last big shift in paradigm happened after the 2nd world war. We’ll see what happens, meanwhile I enjoy the winter and get a bit nostalgic about Star Trek and Captain Kirk and I close with a bumper sticker. Nostalgia ain’t what it used to be.
No comments:
Post a Comment